Thoughts on a bad GM: The Mike Gillis story.

When I heard Luongo was dealt to Florida I glumly predicted the trade package. Markstrom was easy—give a goalie, get a goalie. The money seemed obvious. That contract was always going to be punished. I also guessed it was Shawn Matthias. I didn’t know that Matthias was a Detroit second round pick, which hockey folks find alluring. I didn’t know how big he was, or if he had any exceptional hockey qualities. I didn’t know anything about his current or career stats. I’m not a hockey insider with access to middling front office dwellers wanting to impress reporters with the things they know about the organizations they work for. 

But, I’ve been in enough fantasy hockey pools to know how bad GMs behave.

Matthias had five points in the two games before he was traded. I noticed that while scanning the Panthers’ box score for Huberdeau points. I was intrigued too. Should I pick this guy up for my Yahoo league? I looked at his ‘Hockeydb’ page and realized this was an anomaly. He has never scored 30 points in a professional hockey season. He doesn’t have 20 points yet this season. He isn’t a consistent scoring threat. But even professional GMs are susceptible to fantastic possibilities based on common narratives and small sample sizes.

Matthias was a second round pick by Detroit. They have a wonderful draft record. Everyone knows about their late round European picks Zetterberg and Datsyuk that became superstars. Matthias can score in bunches when given the opportunity, apparently. I can imagine a GM building the narrative and convincing himself he has uncovered something special. The truth is that most draft picks break upon the shores of professional hockey, scattered as it is with the athletic bodies of one thousand other top picks. Matthias navigated that journey from prospect to regular player. That makes him special. But it doesn’t mean he’s exceptional anymore. Tom Sestito was a special player in the OHL. He’s not exactly an NHL superstar. Everyone in the NHL is capable of bursts of productivity if given the chance—John Scott notwithstanding. That’s why GMs look at past performance. It matters to most, but not Mike Gillis. Why?

The simple, obvious and unhelpful reason is because Mike Gillis is bad at his job.

More specifically, Mike Gillis still behaves like someone who has never been a GM before. This is his first GM job, but he is hardly a rookie. Every GM makes mistakes. The idea is to make less than your competitors and not repeat the same type of mistake too often. Certainly, you don’t want your GM to make the same miscalculation two years in a row. Gillis has traded two legitimate number one goalies for one actual NHL player—the aforementioned third line centre Shawn Matthias. He, once again, tried to squeeze too much out of the trade market—this year for Ryan Kesler. As with Luongo, Gillis asked for too much at the deadline. This was the time to cash in. Kesler is a returning Olympian who still has inexplicable value in the league. He is an often injured, second line centre who had a great series against Nashville once. If he was durable, and had the right situation he could be a great second line centre. He isn’t, and he is not getting younger or less injury prone. This was the deadline to trade him.

I understand Gillis may have been interfered with by ownership. I get that Luongo was unhappy with a coaching decision and that weakened Gillis’s leverage. There are always circumstances. That’s why winning is about gaining an extra percentage or two more than your competitors (shout-out to Jonah Keri).  Most distinctions in life are fine and grey. They become gross, black and white differences in our retellings. This is why a team needs many assets. Saviours are rare. Most messianic hockey hopefuls are revealed as false idols. Even the best player on a terrible team can’t win. It takes an organization full of ready, and almost ready, team mates. The Canucks don’t have this. Mike Gillis doesn’t get this. He still picks players like they are trying to win single games. Perhaps Zack Kassian would help the twins from getting pushed around by the Bruins. But Cody Hodgson will help you score more points, win more games and gives you better odds over a larger sample size. If anyone is going to help us win one, or two games when it counts it’s a goalie. And Gillis seems content on shipping them out until we are left with prospects, and career backups.

Be sure not to play too well Eddie. Gillis is sure he can get another couple mediocre prospects or mid round picks for you.